A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
